- Classify any system, career or decision as fragile, robust or antifragile — and re-run the map per domain, because the classification does not travel.
- Measure fragility instead of forecasting risk, using a property of the thing in front of you rather than a prediction about the future.
- Apply the Barbell Strategy to make ruin impossible on one end so the speculative end can be genuinely aggressive.
- Detect the Turkey Problem in your own track record, and respond by changing your exposure rather than by forecasting better.
- Identify iatrogenics — net harm from someone trying to help — and separate it from intervention that is actually warranted.
- Decide when to intervene and when to abstain, using harm that is systemic and fast as the trigger and the smallest unit as the actor.
- Apply via negativa: improve health, work and decisions by removing what harms before adding what helps.
- Distinguish Mediocristan from Extremistan, and stop applying averaging logic in the domain where one event moves the total.
- Build optionality out of asymmetry plus rationality, so you gain without needing to know what happens next.
- Spot a fragile system by its nonlinearity — harm that accelerates faster than the shock that caused it.
- Evaluate any adviser, institution or recommendation with the skin-in-the-game test: who carries the downside if it is wrong.
- State the limit of every concept you use — the dose, the survivability condition, the domain — so you stop applying it where it fails.
Antifragile
Based on Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Live
The Course
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: The Antifragile Framework
Watch Module 1
Module 1 — the first four lectures, whole and unedited, plus the course trailer.
What You’ll Learn
Course Structure
11 modules · 40 lectures · a quiz for each module · a downloadable reference guide
Module 1 — The Antifragile: Definition and Map
Module 2 — Stress Makes Systems Stronger
Module 3 — What Kills Me Makes Others Stronger
Module 4 — Modernity and Suppressed Volatility
Module 5 — Do No Harm: Intervention and Prediction
Module 6 — The Nonpredictive Playbook
Module 7 — Optionality
Module 8 — Suckers, History, and Education
Module 9 — Nonlinearity and Convexity
Module 10 — Via Negativa
Module 11 — Skin in the Game and the Single Thread
This course contains the use of artificial intelligence.
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: The Antifragile Framework
Nassim Taleb’s system for building decisions and careers that gain from volatility. The full framework is 40 lectures across 11 modules — just over two and a half hours of animated explainers, a quiz for each of the 11 modules, and a downloadable reference guide.
Take the course on Udemy →These ideas are the engine behind Ungambled
Drew Tabor applied these principles to build a system that converts sportsbook promotions into cash profit — no gambling required. 23 modules, 111 lectures. Every technique broken into short, concrete steps.
Take the Ungambled course on Udemy →Ungambled, the book — now on Amazon →
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